Lin, J. Sci Rep 9, I agree, they need to pay attention to this article. In addition to this reply I have posted another blog comment below. I sure hope this gets their attention and someone is including this model in future models of ENSO. Can you provide the years for these events? I am struggling to understand the 12 first year Lan Nona means.
A "first year" La Nina means that there was no La Nina prior to its start. A "second year" La Nina means that there was a La Nina winter events tend to reach their strongest point in the winter months prior to the second winter of La Nina. So by that count, here's the first year La Nina winters that were followed by La Nina the next winter 8 events total :. Looks like "the blob" may be forming again in the NW pacific. Could this be the cause of the recent heat waves on the west coast?
How does the marine heat wave impact ENSO? Emily discussed the blob in her last blog post toward the bottom , which contains some useful links which you can click to get the latest info:. Nat had a nice article on multi-year La Nina and why they occur recently so check it out:.
Another dry year for California would be a disaster. Those were wet years. Kip, I don't think there is much cheerleading here. We feel your pain here in California. I would rather take my chances on El Nino. Yup, la nina all the way to Mendocino County Ca sucked. Half the rain of an already reduced rainfall. The storms went to Humboldt and then veered east. Hello: La Nina generally means below normal for NM, which is already absolutely parched.
Here in Santa Fe, even with ENSO neutral conditions, the summer monsoon is basically once again third year in a row a nonsoon. NWS in Albuquerque keeps predicting high percentages of heavy rain for Santa Fe, but all the rain is going to the east and southeast of us or to AZ.
El Nino is the event that usually brings rain and snow our way. Looks like no hope again for Any thoughts whether an El Nino may emerge based on historic data or are we permanently done in by man made climate change? Right now, —23 is too far away to predict using climate models. Too far away. Too early for accurate forecast. You know Northern ca has water restrictions. My sister lives in upland, most of her neighbors have never heard of a water restriction.
We don't get our water from Tahoe. And we are way more efficient down here already than you guys up north. Even for the rest of the year the model is not as accurate as it could be. Similarly, the upper-level westerlies strengthened during July and became more coherent. These circulation anomalies have also supported the recent cooling of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures.
The pattern of recent precipitation anomalies in the Pacific region is largely consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. By late August, however, the Southern Oscillation Index has returned to the neutral range, though still on the high side of neutral. Using the recent observations during July and August as the starting point for their climate models, the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts have produced global-scale forecasts for the coming months.
The range of possible central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies predicted for September-November span the values of At the regional level, seasonal outlooks need to assess the relative effects of both the ENSO state and other locally relevant climate drivers. Research conducted over recent decades has shed considerable light on the important role played by interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean in altering global weather and climate patterns.
Animals Wild Cities Wild parakeets have taken a liking to London. Animals Wild Cities Morocco has 3 million stray dogs. Meet the people trying to help. Animals Whales eat three times more than previously thought.
Environment COP26 nears conclusion with mixed signals and frustration. Environment Planet Possible India bets its energy future on solar—in ways both small and big.
Environment As the EU targets emissions cuts, this country has a coal problem. Paid Content How Hong Kong protects its sea sanctuaries. History Magazine These 3,year-old giants watched over the cemeteries of Sardinia. Science Coronavirus Coverage What families can do now that kids are getting the vaccine. Magazine How one image captures 21 hours of a volcanic eruption. Science Why it's so hard to treat pain in infants.
Science The controversial sale of 'Big John,' the world's largest Triceratops. Science Coronavirus Coverage How antivirals may change the course of the pandemic.
Figure 1. Florida winter rainfall distributions are explained in Figure 2. Figure 2. Many portions of the U. However, the Ohio Valley is below normal, and the southern tier of States from California to Florida is above normal with some spots averaging as much as 5 inches above normal. Storms making landfall in California and storms developing in the Gulf of Mexico are the culprits.
Figure 3. Figure 4 graphically describes the temperature distribution across the U. Figure 4. It is natural to assume that severe weather will also occur farther south. It does!! Figure 5. Figure 6 illustrates this effect.
0コメント